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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."