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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still